The Primary Model of Helmut Norpoth Picked Trump in 2016 & This Year 91% Chance to Win Reelection


Professor Helmut Norpoth discovered that since and including the U. S. presidential election in 1912, the candidate who ran well early and all the way through the primaries ended-up winning the general election 25 out of 27 times, the only exceptions Nixon in 1960 and Al Gore in 2000, so considering Trump set records for incumbent presidents during the primaries this year, and since Trump is the incumbent who almost always wins, Norpoth puts the likelihood that Trump will win at 91%.